I've done a bit of playing around over the last week or so. A few people have said that my calculated 'effectiveness' seemed a bit low as they would get better results than predicted. Turns out one of my factors is meant to be squared, which improved things a bit (added about 80% to some of the numbers).
The amount of heat that gets into your coil from the hot water in the HEX/HLT is the effectiveness. If there is a 30°C difference between the wort in the coil (coming in) and the hot water, the wort mass flow x heat capacity (3700J/kg.°C) you theoretically have a lot of power that can get into the wort, but the coil design (basically length and material) dictates how much of that potential gets in.
The reason I put this up is so that you can see the difference between copper and stainless, and realise as well that if you only have a metre or two, not a lot of power is actually getting into your wort. This means your HEX temp sits fairly high, you have overshoot potential, and your ramp rate will suffer. Seems like the sweet spot for value/space is in the 6-10m range, but obviously if you can get close to 80-90% and have the space/money, then I guess do it.
On overshoot, there seems to be a critical relationship between the kg of mash (i.e. the kg of water + kg of grain, not the weight or volume of your mash tun), the HEX volume and the coil length.
If your HEX volume is more than (roughly) 1/3 of your mash kg and your copper coil length in the HEX is (roughly) 2m or less - or your stainless coil in the HEX is 4m or less - your system will inherently overshoot. Using the D will prevent this, but will slow your ramp rate and unfortunately using 'I' on any sort of tank temperature control will, by the nature of it, cause it to overshoot so you don't want to do this anyway. So while PD control of these sort of setups (e.g. 70L/70kg mash, 30L HEX, 2m copper coil) will prevent overshoot, it will do it at the expense of ramp rate so you should look into reducing your HEX volume and/or increasing your coil length if ramp rate is important to you.
You can also increase your element size and/or your ciruclation rate to improve your ramp rate, but will still have inherent overshoot.
If you have a 70kg mash, a 40L HEX and 10-12m of copper coil then you are sweet. Pick the biggest element you can, circulate as high as your mash tun geometry and false bottom will permit, and just use P control (e.g. 1-5), or P (1) with a bit of D (e.g. 25-150).
This is probably old news or uninteresting news for people with 20A circuits or with good setups, but if you want to try to keep on a 10A circuit and your have some options with coil length and HEX volume, hopefully you can squeeze more out without needing to upgrade your circuit. Or go RIMS.