The Corona Virus (COVID 19) Thread

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Danscraftbeer

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I guess some people should feel blessed, or cursed
to see the stupidity rather than be one of the stupid?
Ignorance has bliss etc 🤨 with much confusion in a massive subdued population.
It kills me to see the local boat ramps (cams) showing the empty car park and I cant even go fishing.
There is nothing more isolated than going fishing out there in a boat away from everything etc. That's a $1600 fine to start with. Then maybe terrorist line of judgment too?
Next thought when they release these lock downs? I hope its not crazy. So many people wanting to do things held back like an excited dog times millions.

Crossed fingers for all.
 

CyriusBrew

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Lol, yeah seen a few posts similar. Rainbows, and cute puppydog gifs will save us all, right?
....
Well...I know our death count in NZ is quite low and it is due to social distancing and locking us down to where we have to stay in our houses..
BUT,
There have been studies on prisons in the USA on inmates that were put into solitary confinement that have shown severe mental health impacts. We are basically doing the same thing to innocent people. The depression, anxiety, and other mental health issues combined with job losses and the usual life distractions will cost lives. I am not fully convinced all of this is worth the social and economic costs we are all paying.
Heck, closing down every business that is not a grocery store or pharmacy is just mad. Even when it comes to online purchases, the companies can not be open unless they get a dispensasion from MBIE as they may be in the supply cycle of an 'essential business'.
/rant
 

Grmblz

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I'm in the "dead if I get it" category, but I wonder if the cure is worse than the disease, and there's the possibility that the toll on society will be greater with what we are doing as opposed to doing nothing, the effects of this are going to echo for years, yet when someone commits suicide or worse kills someone in 2 yrs time no one will attribute the act to the effects of corona virus. It remains to be seen but Sweden's herd immunity strategy may just be what we all should have done, either way it looks like we're headed for a global recession and if that's the case there'll be a metric shit-ton of bodies to deal with. Sorry folks, next post will be bright and sunny.
 

Grmblz

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Do you have elderly family.
I'm elderly, and have underlying conditions which is why I'm dead if I get it. and I'm not advocating doing nothing, just pointing out that we have a rather short sited simplistic view of what is going to become a very complicated problem, and there is more than one way of tackling it.
 

YAPN

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It remains to be seen but Sweden's herd immunity strategy may just be what we all should have done
We could not go down the path of Sweden. Their health service has not been reduced by austerity economics, like Italy. They have plenty of ICU beds and ventilators and plans to close down businesses if it comes to that.

We're not doing too badly, though.
 

Rusted

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Not sure I would want to be in Sweden. They have one of the highest rates of infection globally, currently sitting at 0.15% of the population and a mortality rate currently sitting at 11.5%, which I believe is currently about the third or fourth highest globally.

Put another way, in Sweden you (currently) have a 1 in 659 chance of catching Covid-19 and if you do catch it you have a 1 in 8.7 chance of dying from it.

If that stat doesn't scare the shit out you, then try this one - 1 in 5,714 Swedes have already died from Covid-19 in the 41 days since they record their first death.

Rather be here in Oz...
 

shacked

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Not sure I would want to be in Sweden. They have one of the highest rates of infection globally, currently sitting at 0.15% of the population and a mortality rate currently sitting at 11.5%, which I believe is currently about the third or fourth highest globally.

Put another way, in Sweden you (currently) have a 1 in 659 chance of catching Covid-19 and if you do catch it you have a 1 in 8.7 chance of dying from it.

If that stat doesn't scare the shit out you, then try this one - 1 in 5,714 Swedes have already died from Covid-19 in the 41 days since they record their first death.

Rather be here in Oz...
I think these stats, like most others, are skewed by a lack of testing. Asymptomatic carriers aren't getting tested which makes all of the extrapolated population stats a little unreliable. Time will tell and I guess there isn't any correct way to respond to something unprecendented.
 

Rusted

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I think these stats, like most others, are skewed by a lack of testing. Asymptomatic carriers aren't getting tested which makes all of the extrapolated population stats a little unreliable. Time will tell and I guess there isn't any correct way to respond to something unprecendented.
Yes, you are correct. With the benefit of a rear vision mirror history will be the judge.

Thing with stats is that they are notoriously difficult to interpret with 100% reliability. They simply give you orders of magnitude and directional guidance. We currently don't know how many asymptomatic carriers are in the community, wont know until anti-body testing catches up. But lack of asymptomatic testing doesn't skew the "deaths per million population" statistic, which for Sweden is frightening.

Anyway, I can only hope other Australians (and our Kiwi cousins) stay can stay safe, sane and solvent for a little while longer.
 

pharmaboy

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Not sure I would want to be in Sweden. They have one of the highest rates of infection globally, currently sitting at 0.15% of the population and a mortality rate currently sitting at 11.5%, which I believe is currently about the third or fourth highest globally.

Put another way, in Sweden you (currently) have a 1 in 659 chance of catching Covid-19 and if you do catch it you have a 1 in 8.7 chance of dying from it.

If that stat doesn't scare the shit out you, then try this one - 1 in 5,714 Swedes have already died from Covid-19 in the 41 days since they record their first death.

Rather be here in Oz...
Sweden have done around half the rate of testing than Australia with 5 times the number of confirmed cases (by rate).

You are comparing a cider to a stout. They are only testing ill people, and have elected to let the community decide how it runs. The only way we will substantially beat them, is if we get a vaccine in a timely fashion.

ATM, they do not have an overwhelmed ICU, so people are getting treated - its not like Lombardy, where beds were in the aisles.

In 5 months time, sitting in australia in the midst of the worst depression on record, with still no vaccine in sight, and looking across to much of europe who have gone back to normal with recovering economies, things might look very different, and Sweden could easily be the country that played the very best hand.

We sure as hell dont know yet though
 
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Initially I was with the herd immunity course of action, the problem with it is the outcry at the deaths in a short time, and the pressure it would put on the health service. So keeping our heads down and a very gradual return to normality will keep the pressure off the health system, but longer term damage to the economy.
 

Grmblz

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Rather be here in Oz...
Completely agree at this point in time, my concern is what the picture will look like in a year or two if we enter a massive recession.
Personally I'm very lucky, no mortgage and a secure pension, NOT "self funded" I have friends almost crying at what the stock market is doing to their "future" they can see themselves on a government pension by the time this all plays out, and that's not what they planned for.
I started this discussion as a way to address the elephant in the room, and would like to thank all that have commented in a thoughtful and non derisive manner, whatever your opinion may be.
A while back I made the comment "this isn't the Spanish dancer" I was wrong, just as wrong as "unprecedented" the precedent being 1918, the difference this time of course is global communication with information but also the media hype/speculation. 1918 was devastating but gives us an insight into the outcome of the Swedish approach, I'm no historian but I'm pretty sure we didn't have a recession in 1919/20, and now to the other elephant in the room, the D word, if the world goes into a global Depression!!! Well I hope you've got a veggie patch, after WW2 in Northern England my grandad kept rabbits in hutches in his back yard (protein) and we weren't actually in a depression, I believe in Australia rabbits kept a lot of folks from starvation, and it was considered "ok" if you slaughtered someones sheep for meat as long as you left the fleece hanging on the fence, during "the depression" I paint a bleak picture, and sincerely hope it doesn't come to this, but I think it needs to be discussed. Happy to be corrected btw on any of the Aussie stuff pominoz since 1985.
 

Roosterboy

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What really shits me is this was predicted to happen eventually , we spend billions on our military , billions on insurance of all
kinds and Governments around the world hadn't planned for this. A pathogen not much more than a bunch of amino acids and
it can bring the world to a stop. I think many things are going to be looked at after this, the responsibility of The WHO in pandemics,
the speed of closing borders, the ability of countries to make their own PPE and sanitisers not just buy from China, cruise ship hygiene,
the budget for virology research by Governments , even the freedom to hop over borders in Europe will probably be looked at. It will be
a different world for a while until the current bean counters around the world are replaced by the next generation and the lessons are
forgotten.
 

Grmblz

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Those that forget the lessons of the past are condemned to repeat them, and for you god bothers out there no it's not from your book, it's LOGIC!
@Rooster Common knowledge about cruise ships is an outbreak of gastro/flu whatever infects the whole ship, they don't advertise it of course but it's just the way it is. Buying from China comes down to our greed, don't blame China, and don't get me started on bean counters. Always happy to be corrected.
 
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Another 6 weeks of lock down, much as I would like to blame Andrews, I can't seeing it all being his fault. Maybe they should have checked that the security guards sanitary regime was up to scratch, everything else could only really be foreseen in hind sight. He could never have stopped the protest march without risking police facing lock downs. We just have to switch off and wait it out, even though its still going to be there when the six weeks is over.
 

MaggieO

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Positive antibody test three weeks ago. Completely asymptomatic.
 

shacked

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Another 6 weeks of lock down, much as I would like to blame Andrews, I can't seeing it all being his fault. Maybe they should have checked that the security guards sanitary regime was up to scratch, everything else could only really be foreseen in hind sight. He could never have stopped the protest march without risking police facing lock downs. We just have to switch off and wait it out, even though its still going to be there when the six weeks is over.
Gee whiz mate, good luck. I hope you've got your brew supplies sorted!
 

clickeral

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Gee whiz mate, good luck. I hope you've got your brew supplies sorted!
Also in Melbourne, moving house next week, have half a ton of grain and about 40kg of hops I am sorted :p

Partner is currently doing covid tests in the lab, getting through upto 1200 tests a day. Not her normal role but the business she works for is happy she volenteered as she has lab expirence. Been doing 6-7day weeks, had to tell her off the other day as she worked 10days straight (10-12hr days)

Not overly happy about being locked down but tbh ive got things to do and can work from home, also saves me 2hour commute a day
 

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