Where To Find Figures On # Of Homebrewers In Australia?

[Ducatiboy stu]

Us AG brewers may be the minority, but we are the POWER... :beerbang:


Actually it would be interesting to see how many AG brewers are out there...

 

[captaincleanoff]

I would've thought you just needed to know how many kits are sold and work on the assumption of 12 kits per person per year h34r:

I reckon there are a fair few people that AG

therefore this would be completely inaccurate

 

[Adamt]

I reckon there are a fair few people that AG

therefore this would be completely inaccurate

An argument based on undeniable proof! :lol: Though it depends what a "fair few" means.

There's at least 100,000 homebrewers in Australia, if not 3 or 4 times that... 10,000 members on this site, 3,000 active, maybe 500-1000 AG? 0.5-1% of homebrewers mash? Is that a fair few?

 

[Renegade]

There's at least 100,000 homebrewers in Australia, if not 3 or 4 times that...

Isn't that an unqualified shot at a figure ? If the SMH got their info at 2 % (had to come from somewhere right?) and MHB's survery that as conducted is to be referred to at 2.5% of the population (albeit 10 years ago), then the figure's more in the ballpark of 50,000. This seems to be the most reliable number to refer to in the absence of any other data.

 

[Adamt]

2.5% of 20,000,000 is 500,000.

Maths FTW!

 

[Scruffy]

I suspect more brewers than estimates here suggest.

If it's on shelves of Coles, BigW, KMart, Bi-Lo et all, it must sell... and sell in some volume for the big chains to even consider it.

 

[captaincleanoff]

An argument based on undeniable proof!

 

[Renegade]

On a completely unrelated topic, anyone want me to do their tax return this year ? You'll eitehr get a huge return or be put in prison for defrauding the ATO LOL.

 

[Josh]

2.5% of 20,000,000 is 500,000.

Maths FTW!

Is the 2% figure quoted in the SMH meant to infer that 2% of the population are brewers, or that 2% of beer consumed is homebrew?

If 2% of beer consumed is homebrew,
and,
taking a sample size of 1 (me), homebrew is approximately 50% of beer consumed by homebrewers. Thus 4% of the population are homebrewers.

20,000,000*0.04=800,000 homebrewers.

The assumption being homebrew consumed by non-homebrewers is negligible.

 

[captaincleanoff]

I'm fairly sure that it would be percentages of "what people said they drink," as apposed to volumes produced etc.

 

[Adamt]

I based my 100,000 on the figure quoted by a 2004 article I linked earlier suggesting 300,000, note I dropped the number significantly to well under what it likely. The 2.5% of beer consumed as homebrew does not imply 2.5% of Aussies homebrew, it is a (very) weak implication on the number of homebrewers. However it serves to give an approximate order of magnitude, and matches up approximately against the 2004 article. Again, note that I have heavily discounted these figures in a manner that goes against my argument.

I'm just using what information is readily available to get ballpark figures and I think I've done so in a logical manner.

 

[peas_and_corn]

I'd say that there are 425,835.5 brewers in Australia.

 

[HoppingMad]

Here's some more concrete stuff for your journo, might be able to do some estimates off this:

2004 Article - Coopers Marketing Manager Scott Harris says Coopers sells around 3 million cans of kit homebrew a year (one third going overseas) and that demand for home brewing follows economic cycles.
News.com
Jan 2009 Press Release from Coopers indicating their kit beer sales have risen recently.
Coopers Sales Figures

Another source of stats would be to contact brewing clubs and ask their numbers of members. This would give you an official club membership figure, but not the 'private' figure which would be heaps more.

:icon_cheers: Hopper.

 

[bum]

If 2% of beer consumed is homebrew, and, taking a sample size of 1 (me), homebrew is approximately 50% of beer consumed by homebrewers. Thus 4% of the population are homebrewers.

That is, of course, assuming that every member of the population drinks beer. Which, even in this country, is a ludicrous assumption to make.

 

[brettprevans]

All Latest Threads:
Where To Find Figures On # Of Homebrewers In Australia? by bum


thats about right. its where these figures are being pulled from ie your arses. have any of you done any statistics work? god i hope not.

all these ideas are great except for the fact they are flawed. there's double counting, weird assumptions/extrapolations, consideration of irraltional factors etc etc.

The only hard data you can go by is a proper survey (ie MHBs). you cant really extrapolate the data baased on population growth as you dont know the takeup rate of the increased population. You would need a few years worth of survey data to assertain a trend then use that to extrapolate. Now you can logically assume that from the articles HoppingMad posted above that there are more people taking up homebrewing for a variety of reasons (global economy, massive kit sale increases etc). Its logical to assume a correlation. Its doubtful that the exsisting kit brewers have suddenly massively ramped up production, so at least some of the increase has to be new brewers.

It would also be fairly logical to follow the trend data of people drinking less but better quality beer (ie craftbeer) form other news articles and then assume that some of these people will try their hands at making craft beer. But again there's a lot guess work and assumptions being made.

you could attack this from another angle - contact various homebrewing websites and ask for a history of their web hits say over the last 5-10 years (in 6 month or yearly blocks). Then see what the trend is. If it is steadily increasing or spikes coincide with economic/workforce pressures then its probably showing that more people are at least considering the idea of homebrewing. So the idea is to tackle this from the point of view of interest in homebrewing. I would assume you would find a huge growth.
Of course this does have a downside. the growth of online business would account for some of the growth. so getting retailer history (not that i think they will give it to you), will be skewed. best bet is for online forums etc.

my 2c.

 

[bum]

Regardless of whether or not it is possible for a correct answer to come out of this thread, it seems obvious to me that CM2 has basically written the article himself above. Forward that instead of the numbers - it'll just need a little "colour". Job done.

 

[captaincleanoff]

it seems obvious to me that CM2 has basically written the article himself above. Forward that instead of the numbers - it'll just need a little "colour". Job done.

??? :unsure:

 

[bum]

The article isn't likely to be a serious analysis of the numbers. It'll just be a puff piece on a trend in the market. Probably with an add for Coopers on the opposite page. Not in anyway having a go at the OP's journo or CM2.

 

[captaincleanoff]

what article?

 

[bum]

The one the thread is about?