Swine Flu - Do We Need To Stockpile

[technocat]

I agree the so called swine flu epidemic is an overstated beat up by the media, hardly newsworthy anymore and I for one am sick of hearing about it.

 

[brettprevans]

I agree the so called swine flu epidemic is an overstated beat up by the media, hardly newsworthy anymore and I for one am sick of hearing about it.

try working in a health dept. its all i hear about.

 

[Screwtop]

All this crap and people are paranoid because of it. Yet we happily drive motor cars on the same strip of bitumen at 100Kph in opposite directions passing .5M apart. Intelligent life form???????????????

I find all of this swine flew hype pretty Boaring :lol:

screwy

 

[brettprevans]

now Im happy to be corrected.. but one of my work colleagues just back from the US this morning and dropped into work.. H1N1 isnt being talked about in the US. not in the papers not anywhere. its a non event. about 35,000 people die from flu in the US each year so they arent worried about this in the slightest. also in the various countries he vistied (incl hong kong, UA, spain, and a few others), only Australia had any sorts of forms or checking equipment to do with H1N1. interesting huh?

 

[jonocarroll]

New swine flu case: 'I've had worse paper cuts'

My wife works in a vet. pathology lab - apparently we've had swine flu in Australia for years. There's a chance that if you've had influenza in the last couple of years, it's been the A/H1N1 strain, and you wouldn't have known. It's not particularly dangerous (no more than a regular influenza - which is only a concern if you're immune system isn't at full strength for whatever reason).

Have a look at the CDC website for past summaries of influenza. For example, from the 2006-2007 summary;

One case of human infection with swine influenza virus was reported in a child from Iowa in November 2006. Although human infection with swine influenza is uncommon, sporadic cases occur in many years, usually among persons in direct contact with ill pigs or who have been in places where pigs might have been present (e.g. agricultural fairs, farms, or petting zoos). The sporadic cases identified in recent years have not resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission or community outbreaks. Nonetheless, when sporadic cases are identified, CDC recommends thorough investigations to evaluate the extent of the outbreaks and possible human to human transmission as transmission patterns may change with changes in swine influenza viruses.

Although this current 'outbreak' is human-human capable, the death rate is mainly due to poor health standards in Mexico.

Oh, and the 'increasing tally' of confirmed cases is a farce. The news will report '50 new cases discovered today...' - that's just because the lab results came back on a large batch of tests that day. It's not that it's spreading faster and faster, it's just that now people are bothering to test for the exact virus, rather than saying "oh, I have influenza, I should stay home and get better."

 

[Adamt]

...which is only a concern if you're immune system isn't at full strength for whatever reason)....

:unsure:

This disappoint's me.

 

[jonocarroll]

:unsure:

This disappoint's me.

Grrr. I've been doing that a lot lately. I should get checked out. I'll leave it there for penance. h34r:

 

[Darren]

Having worked in influenza research for three years now, I would say that Australia is using this recent outbreak as a "dry run" for WHEN the next highly pathogenic virus emerges.

And on the 1918 influenza strain, it was relatively benign in the first season it emerged. It was the subsequent season after the virus had adapted when excessive deaths started.

1918 H1N1 influenza strain killed ~2% of those infected
1957 H2H2 influenza strain killed ~0.2 of those infected
1968 H3N2 influenza strain killed ~0.2% of those infected
1997 H5N1 influenza (bird flu) strain still killing >50% of those infected

And those of you who thought that bird flu had gone away:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_22a/en/index.html

If this strain starts to be transmitted from human-human then there certainly will be cause for alarm

cheers

Darren

 

[QldKev]

Easy to avoid. Just dont sleep with pigs. :lol:
Greg

Well that is not that easy for some of us!!!! :icon_drool2:

lol

QldKev

 

[jonocarroll]

1968 H3N2 influenza strain killed ~0.2% of those infected
1997 H5N1 influenza (bird flu) strain still killing >50% of those infected

That's pretty rubbish statistics though, right? The %mortality rate isn't particularly informative. In the case of H3N2 the pandemic of 1968 and 1969 killed an estimated one million people worldwide, and if your numbers are correct, 500 million people were infected. H5N1 has only (officially) infected 424 people, killing 261 (62%) of them. Sure, it has a high mortality rate, but it has trouble infecting humans. Something along the lines of sucking the mucous out of cock-fighting bird beaks will likely do the trick, but otherwise it's fairly low risk. Don't get me wrong, if it makes that jump we should be worried.

The total number of infections for H1N1 clearly aren't known, but the %mortality would be extremely low.

As for using the hype as a 'dry run' - I think that's giving too much credit to the news outlets. This is FUD, plain and simple.

 

[petesbrew]

I had the lesser known swine cold on the weekend. I don't do flu, that's for hypochondriac's and drama-queens.
However, when the world goes all post-apocalyptic from a super Swine flu outbreak, I'll happily "Mad Max-erise" my Hyundai Excel, and wander the highways...

 

[Steve]

:icon_offtopic:

YAWN

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Why on earth is this in the latest threads section?

 

[brettprevans]

if you read the OP it was discussion the possibility of needing to stockpile brewing items as there was talk of people stockpiling food. the thread is now basicly a 'discussion' on flu and whether its BS or not.

 

[jonocarroll]

:icon_offtopic:

YAWN

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Why on earth is this in the latest threads section?

Hey, you're right. We should get back to discussing whether or not people should keep making beer mats. That's far more interesting. FFS don't read it if you're not interested.

 

[bum]

now Im happy to be corrected.. but one of my work colleagues just back from the US this morning and dropped into work.. H1N1 isnt being talked about in the US. not in the papers not anywhere. its a non event. about 35,000 people die from flu in the US each year so they arent worried about this in the slightest. also in the various countries he vistied (incl hong kong, UA, spain, and a few others), only Australia had any sorts of forms or checking equipment to do with H1N1. interesting huh?

I'm not in a position to correct but I do feel qualified to comment (spent a lot of time there with the out-laws) and I'd just like to make 2 points. The first is that you don't want to take the average American's awareness of what is happening to the poorer nations as the basis of an issue's importance. Christ, they don't even give a rat's about the poor in their backyard. The second is that you don't want to make America's health system your yardstick.

 

[Darren]

That's pretty rubbish statistics though, right? The %mortality rate isn't particularly informative. In the case of H3N2 the pandemic of 1968 and 1969 killed an estimated one million people worldwide, and if your numbers are correct, 500 million people were infected.

Actually I think they are close to the mark. One criteria for pandemic status is an increase in mortality over than which would normally be seen from the "natural" deaths occuring from seasonal influenza infection.

BTW, these influenza pandemic plans have been in place since little Johnny ran the country.

cheers

Darren

 

[jonocarroll]

One criteria for pandemic status is an increase in mortality over than which would normally be seen from the "natural" deaths occuring from seasonal influenza infection.

Sure, that's a fine definition, but %mortality of infected persons doesn't represent that statistic, is all I'm saying. %mortality by population given a seasonal baseline would suffice, as that takes into account both the capability of infection, and the mortality rate of the infection itself. Bird flu may be a potent killer, but the %mortality by population is itsy bitsy. 1968 H3N2 on the other hand, may not have been as strong, but it killed a non-trivial percentage of the population, thus 'pandemic'.

Yes, we're debating semantics, but this thread was BS to begin with.

 

[brettprevans]

from the VIDRL website. flu like illness has long been an issue. this is just a beat up. put an animal's name in front of an illness and its media gold (ala chicken flu, pig flu, cock flu next year)

from the Vic DHS site - confirmed cases are 306 and deaths none.

Im sick hearing about it. flu mob keep wanting to pinch my staff.

 

[Pumpy]

I keep getting Government emails telling me not to eat canned pork because of the risk of Swine flu!!

But the IT guy says not to worry its only Spam

Pumpy

 

[jonocarroll]

I keep getting Government emails telling me not to eat canned pork because of the risk of Swine flu!!

But the IT guy says not to worry its only 'Spam'

Pumpy

My poor piggy bank - it's been starving for months, and now it's got swine flu!