Swine Flu - Do We Need To Stockpile

[jlm]

Guaranteed it'll be a non event/old news in a couple of weeks then the papers will be onto something else to sell their papers.
Cheers
Steve

Had a good laugh earlier this week when the main paper in SEQ featured on their front page under main headline "Un-stopable Virus Cannot be Stopped" or something similar.

 

[jlm]

Here it is. Hilarious.

 

[tazman1967]

Sorry to remain O/T
The question begs...Whats in the glass ???
Doesnt look like Chappos Kamakazie Lager ?
Cheers

 

[Sammus]

Yeah right... Swine flu... What a joke. Before we totally loose touch with reality here let me just remind you that 160 people in Mejico have died of this so far.

Mate I dunno where you get your information from, but according to BBC world news (who I've heard are pretty reliable) there have been 13 deaths from it worldwide....

Don't get me wrong, I'm on your side, its just even less serious than what your making it out to be

Or to put it more in perspective, JAMA. 2003;289:179-186. (link) estimate approximately 36,000 deaths and more than 200,000 hospitalizations are directly associated with influenza every year in the United States.

And noone is stockpiling because of regular influenza are they?

 

[white.grant]

You have to stop thinking about the severity of a flu pandemic in terms of who has died already. It's not the sniffles, the impact of influenza is drastic whatever strain it is.

I had one of the asian strains of influenza back in 1997. One moment I was in the kitchen stuffing squid with SWMBO, the next I was shivering on lounge under a blanket. It took a fortnight of sweating and writhing in bed, losing 15kgs before the fever broke and I was as weak as a kitten after that (I only weighed 70kg before I got sick).

During the fever my wife and family were frantic with worry, I was off my head for days, barely conscious and hallucinating wildly, I couldn't eat or drink much. Thankfully, I don't remember any of the worst bits except for the gnawing pain in my head and distant conversations.

After a while, I came good but it was easily 3 months before I had recovered enough to be able to mow the lawn or go for a long walk, take my kids to the park or ride my bike. I was off work for 4 weeks.

cheers

grant

 

[Mantis]

After a while, I came good but it was easily 3 months before I had recovered enough to be able to mow the lawn or go for a long walk, take my kids to the park or ride my bike. I was off work for 4 weeks.

cheers

grant

I want your job
3 months to recover, and only 4 weeks off work
:huh:

 

[white.grant]

I want your job
3 months to recover, and only 4 weeks off work
:huh:

Local government -

I was able to lean on my spade after 4 weeks, but i was not aloud to raise it above my shoulder to strike anyone for 3 months.

 

[Mantis]

Good for you dude
I work with computers, so that means , I am on here typing **** most of the day :lol:

 

[unterberg]

Swine flu - what can I say?

The main reason everyone is worried about influenza viruses is historically - two words: Spanish flu.
And indeed there is reason to be worried that a new "killer" strain might be generated through mutation at some stage.

But history also tells you that this might not be that likely after all - SARS flared up and everyone panicked but till today you have about 1000 deaths over the last 6 years. SARS and now the swine flu generates a lot of public interest and mobilizes a lot of money for medical research on flu. But is that really our biggest concern?
For an overview have a look here.
Thats something I remember very well from my medical microbiology lectures years ago.
The biggest killers are Malaria, HIV and Tuberculosis with millions worldwide every year. No panic there since they are already as deadly as it can get and have been so for decades.
Most if it happening in the 3d world...
And the reason for that is obviously one fact: Poverty!

The worlds biggest killer is poverty!

Why do you think diarrhea is killing so many people? Ever had it?
We just lie back in bed, drink plenty and replenish our electrolytes - no worries.
Try to get through it without fresh water and food - good luck!

Thats why I come to the conclusion that I dont really care about the flu. So long as I can afford to drink beer there is nothing to worry about!

 

[geoffi]

Stockpile? Yes!

Stockpile bacon, ham and pork. While the scientifically illiterate fret that chewing on a chop with give them swine flu, I've seen amazing specials on swine flesh.

 

[Bribie G]

Well today is the first day the Courier Mail doesn't mention the Cerveza flu on its front page, you have to dig around in the 'world news' section and there is a story 'Swine flu is not as serious as was thought'.

So what do I do now with my six large tins of salmon, two kilos of cheese, four litres of olive oil, three bags of basmatti rice, ten litres of UHT milk etc.
Fooled again :lol:

Salmon mornay for the next fortnight by the looks of it

Warning: imminent outbreak of the new Salmon Flu, 100% fatal to recent salmon eaters :huh:

 

[Steve]

The reason people are scared is because the ABC website state:

"Worldwide, 13 countries have confirmed cases of the virus that has killed as many as 176 people. Only one person has died outside Mexico - a toddler from Mexico who travelled to the United States"

They fail to mention that only 10 or so have actually died from it, NOT 176. Why do they lie. And this morning someone with a bit of clout, Mr Obama, says its not as bad as the common flu! Thank **** for common sense prevailing.

I think this can now be moved in to the OFF TOPIC section?

Cheers
Steve

 

[Adamt]

Let the hype build up and watch the pork/ham/bacon prices plummet. Stockpiling pig products at this stage is a bad investment!

+1 for off-topic.

 

[BrissyBrew]

The WHO is actually the organisation pushing all this- their pandemic level is 5 (6 is full-on proper pandemic)

I see sales of Tamiflu are up, and so is the share has jumped by 1/3rd. Rummy must be laughing all the way to the bank. I also see the exec director of WHO speciality is in Pandemic Influenza, experience with bird flu and SARS. With current confirmed cases of death from swine flu world wide sitting at 17 a month or two after the first recorded case I just dont feel compelled to run and stockpile food.

Mr Rumsfeld was on the board of Gilead from 1988 to 2001, and was its chairman from 1997. He then left to join the Bush administration, but retained a huge shareholding .

The firm made a loss in 2003, the year before concern about bird flu started. Then revenues from Tamiflu almost quadrupled, to $44.6m, helping put the company well into the black. Sales almost quadrupled again, to $161.6m last year. During this time the share price trebled.

Mr Rumsfeld sold some of his Gilead shares in 2004 reaping - according to the financial disclosure report he is required to make each year - capital gains of more than $5m. The report showed that he still had up to $25m-worth of shares at the end of 2004, and at least one analyst believes his stake has grown well beyond that figure, as the share price has soared. Further details are not likely to become known, however, until Mr Rumsfeld makes his next disclosure in May.

The 2005 report showed that, in all, he owned shares worth up to $95.9m, from which he got an income of up to $13m, owned land worth up to $17m, and made $1m from renting it out. (The Independent)

 

[Screwtop]

Thought I may have Swine Flu, was breaking out in Rashers. So I phoned the Swine Flu Hotline, and all I got was Crackling. It's ok for pigs they're going to be cured anyway. They don't have to worry about the Hamdemic, which may lead to an Aporkalypse. Will try a liberal application of Oinkment, that may work unless they doctor who suggested it was telling Porkies.

Never mind where there's a swill theres a way :lol:

Screwy

 

[mash head]

Easy to avoid. Just dont sleep with pigs. :lol:
Greg

 

[peas_and_corn]

I see sales of Tamiflu are up, and so is the share has jumped by 1/3rd. Rummy must be laughing all the way to the bank. I also see the exec director of WHO speciality is in Pandemic Influenza, experience with bird flu and SARS. With current confirmed cases of death from swine flu world wide sitting at 17 a month or two after the first recorded case I just dont feel compelled to run and stockpile food.

Mr Rumsfeld was on the board of Gilead from 1988 to 2001, and was its chairman from 1997. He then left to join the Bush administration, but retained a huge shareholding .

The firm made a loss in 2003, the year before concern about bird flu started. Then revenues from Tamiflu almost quadrupled, to $44.6m, helping put the company well into the black. Sales almost quadrupled again, to $161.6m last year. During this time the share price trebled.

Mr Rumsfeld sold some of his Gilead shares in 2004 reaping - according to the financial disclosure report he is required to make each year - capital gains of more than $5m. The report showed that he still had up to $25m-worth of shares at the end of 2004, and at least one analyst believes his stake has grown well beyond that figure, as the share price has soared. Further details are not likely to become known, however, until Mr Rumsfeld makes his next disclosure in May.

The 2005 report showed that, in all, he owned shares worth up to $95.9m, from which he got an income of up to $13m, owned land worth up to $17m, and made $1m from renting it out. (The Independent)

What has Rumsfeld got to do with the World Health Organisation?

 

[brettprevans]

As of 06:00 GMT, 29 May 2009, 53 countries have officially reported 15,510 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection, including 99 deaths.
As at 1600hrs there are 212 confirmed cases in Victoria. Still predominately school aged children.

Now.....
1500 -2000 people die each year in victoria alone from normal flu (mainly the frail, aged, etc).
so far H1N1 has killed less than 100 people worldwide.

2 words - beat up.

 

[Whistlingjack]

Another reason to delete those spam emails right away...

WJ

 

[bum]

As of 06:00 GMT, 29 May 2009, 53 countries have officially reported 15,510 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection, including 99 deaths.
As at 1600hrs there are 212 confirmed cases in Victoria. Still predominately school aged children.

Now.....
1500 -2000 people die each year in victoria alone from normal flu (mainly the frail, aged, etc).
so far H1N1 has killed less than 100 people worldwide.

2 words - beat up.

Not exactly. There is the potential for as many deaths again and we're only just working out how to fight it properly now.

And cancer kills more people than traffic accidents. TAC commercials = beat up?

People dying is bad and when new ways for people to die come about we should take it seriously (alert - not alarmed).

 

[technocat]

I agree the so called swine flu epidemic is an overstated beat up by the media, hardly newsworthy anymore and I for one am sick of hearing about it.

 

[brettprevans]

I agree the so called swine flu epidemic is an overstated beat up by the media, hardly newsworthy anymore and I for one am sick of hearing about it.

try working in a health dept. its all i hear about.

 

[Screwtop]

All this crap and people are paranoid because of it. Yet we happily drive motor cars on the same strip of bitumen at 100Kph in opposite directions passing .5M apart. Intelligent life form???????????????

I find all of this swine flew hype pretty Boaring :lol:

screwy

 

[brettprevans]

now Im happy to be corrected.. but one of my work colleagues just back from the US this morning and dropped into work.. H1N1 isnt being talked about in the US. not in the papers not anywhere. its a non event. about 35,000 people die from flu in the US each year so they arent worried about this in the slightest. also in the various countries he vistied (incl hong kong, UA, spain, and a few others), only Australia had any sorts of forms or checking equipment to do with H1N1. interesting huh?

 

[jonocarroll]

New swine flu case: 'I've had worse paper cuts'

My wife works in a vet. pathology lab - apparently we've had swine flu in Australia for years. There's a chance that if you've had influenza in the last couple of years, it's been the A/H1N1 strain, and you wouldn't have known. It's not particularly dangerous (no more than a regular influenza - which is only a concern if you're immune system isn't at full strength for whatever reason).

Have a look at the CDC website for past summaries of influenza. For example, from the 2006-2007 summary;

One case of human infection with swine influenza virus was reported in a child from Iowa in November 2006. Although human infection with swine influenza is uncommon, sporadic cases occur in many years, usually among persons in direct contact with ill pigs or who have been in places where pigs might have been present (e.g. agricultural fairs, farms, or petting zoos). The sporadic cases identified in recent years have not resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission or community outbreaks. Nonetheless, when sporadic cases are identified, CDC recommends thorough investigations to evaluate the extent of the outbreaks and possible human to human transmission as transmission patterns may change with changes in swine influenza viruses.

Although this current 'outbreak' is human-human capable, the death rate is mainly due to poor health standards in Mexico.

Oh, and the 'increasing tally' of confirmed cases is a farce. The news will report '50 new cases discovered today...' - that's just because the lab results came back on a large batch of tests that day. It's not that it's spreading faster and faster, it's just that now people are bothering to test for the exact virus, rather than saying "oh, I have influenza, I should stay home and get better."

 

[Adamt]

...which is only a concern if you're immune system isn't at full strength for whatever reason)....

:unsure:

This disappoint's me.

 

[jonocarroll]

:unsure:

This disappoint's me.

Grrr. I've been doing that a lot lately. I should get checked out. I'll leave it there for penance. h34r:

 

[Darren]

Having worked in influenza research for three years now, I would say that Australia is using this recent outbreak as a "dry run" for WHEN the next highly pathogenic virus emerges.

And on the 1918 influenza strain, it was relatively benign in the first season it emerged. It was the subsequent season after the virus had adapted when excessive deaths started.

1918 H1N1 influenza strain killed ~2% of those infected
1957 H2H2 influenza strain killed ~0.2 of those infected
1968 H3N2 influenza strain killed ~0.2% of those infected
1997 H5N1 influenza (bird flu) strain still killing >50% of those infected

And those of you who thought that bird flu had gone away:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_22a/en/index.html

If this strain starts to be transmitted from human-human then there certainly will be cause for alarm

cheers

Darren

 

[QldKev]

Easy to avoid. Just dont sleep with pigs. :lol:
Greg

Well that is not that easy for some of us!!!! :icon_drool2:

lol

QldKev

 

[jonocarroll]

1968 H3N2 influenza strain killed ~0.2% of those infected
1997 H5N1 influenza (bird flu) strain still killing >50% of those infected

That's pretty rubbish statistics though, right? The %mortality rate isn't particularly informative. In the case of H3N2 the pandemic of 1968 and 1969 killed an estimated one million people worldwide, and if your numbers are correct, 500 million people were infected. H5N1 has only (officially) infected 424 people, killing 261 (62%) of them. Sure, it has a high mortality rate, but it has trouble infecting humans. Something along the lines of sucking the mucous out of cock-fighting bird beaks will likely do the trick, but otherwise it's fairly low risk. Don't get me wrong, if it makes that jump we should be worried.

The total number of infections for H1N1 clearly aren't known, but the %mortality would be extremely low.

As for using the hype as a 'dry run' - I think that's giving too much credit to the news outlets. This is FUD, plain and simple.