Is The Hop Shortage Starting?

[Duff]

Surfing around this afternoon and came across this post again.

Made me think about prices, so I went onto Craftbrewer. A 90gm pack of US Cascade has now hit $9.00. I thought that couldn't be right as I had bought some in February, at $7.50. Same 'vintage' 2007 pellets.

Over at Gryphon, they are advertised at $6.00 for 100gms (2006). Stored properly, the 2006 would still be fine to use.

Has the 'shortage' started to be felt here? Why are prices rising?

 

[Mantis]

Surfing around this afternoon and came across this post again.

Made me think about prices, so I went onto Craftbrewer. A 90gm pack of US Cascade has now hit $9.00. I thought that couldn't be right as I had bought some in February, at $7.50. Same 'vintage' 2007 pellets.

Over at Gryphon, they are advertised at $6.00 for 100gms (2006). Stored properly, the 2006 would still be fine to use.

Has the 'shortage' started to be felt here? Why are prices rising?

Maybe Coles or Safeway have taken over the distribution :lol:

 

[Batz]

A little like petrol pricing hey?
Price goes up one day but we know thoses tanks have been full for a while now <_<
Prices will come down when we have a better hop year but...



Batz

 

[Duff]

Which is a comparison I have thought of as well Batz.

How can a service station with say a 100,000L filled every couple of weeks have such fluctuations?

The answer from many will be 'demand'. Price is a barometer of availability.

So, is the 2007 US Cascade subjected to the same parameters, even within 2 - 3 months? Has there been such demand within the past couple of months that has justified the rise?

 

[Tony]

Perhaps the price of them has gone up in yanky land due to low supply, hence pushing the price up here frou us to get them.

I was talking to a fella in america on a chilli growing forum that is an AG brewer and he said he is going to start growing his own hops because he just cant get any.

Thank god i dont like APA

cheers

 

[Batz]

Perhaps the price of them has gone up in yanky land due to low supply, hence pushing the price up here frou us to get them.

I was talking to a fella in america on a chilli growing forum that is an AG brewer and he said he is going to start growing his own hops because he just cant get any.

Thank god i dont like APA

cheers

Yes too true Tony,I buy my hop direct and ATM I can't get any,lucky I store quite a bit.

This does still not explain how 2007 hops have gone from $7.50 to $9.00,these would have already be bought packaged and be ready for sale.

Of coarse perhaps the retailers had to buy 2007 hops at inflated prices? If so i didn't

Batz

 

[Tony]

mmm very true!

can you smell petrol?

Im sure there is a perfectly good explination for it all!

is it just cascade?

cheers

 

[AndrewQLD]

I notice the American brewers are paying anything from $3-$6 an ounce for hops, wonder how long it will be before were suffering the brunt too.
Hopefully the NZ and Australian growers will help pad the hard times ahead.

Andrew

 

[Tony]

So it is just american hops.............. what about english and euro hops?

 

[Mothballs]

So it is just american hops.............. what about english and euro hops?

Unfortunately its bad news all round I think. In talking to Ross over the last couple of months he has said that there will be major shortages on some hops and lots of cost increases of which alot have already occurred. From memory the only new season UK hops that will be available will be EKG and Fuggles and only in pellet form. So if you are keen on using UK plugs there will not be many around in the next 12 months.

Cheers
Anthony

 

[Zwickel]

howdy homebrewers

I think that is a world wide issue.

Ive written in an earlier thread:

"....yeah, but also here the prices are rising eminently.

Just I had a look for new prices and got shocked:
last year Ive paid 42 Euro for 100kg of Pilsener malt, this year the price raised to 65 Euro for 100kg.
Hops Ive paid 15 Euro for one Kilo, actually the Magnum costs 36 Euro, thats more than double.
uuuups....Northern Brewer lays about 40 Euro/kg ....Ive paid 13 Euro last year ....
Saazer 52 Euro at the moment....Im shocked...."


Some of the sorts are even not available anymore.

Cheers

 

[kram]

I had read the threads on "the shortage" late last year, so I picked up 450gms of Cascade and Amarillo, $26 each. Glad I've got a bunchload left.

 

[Duff]

But do retailers purchase hops at the current market price from a wholesaler on a daily/weekly basis?

Just like a fish wholesaler or an oil company.

Are there micro's or commercial breweries buying up all the hops from Craftbrewer which are justifying the increase?

 

[Batz]

But do retailers purchase hops at the current market price from a wholesaler on a daily/weekly basis?

Just like a fish wholesaler or an oil company.

Are there micro's or commercial breweries buying up all the hops from Craftbrewer which are justifying the increase?

Seems only you and I can detect this Duff
These other brewers would make very poor traders

Batz

 

[matti]

hopping expensive hobby brewing.....
100g hops $9
gee I must have got ripped off last year when I paid $9 for 100g Target.

 

[Tony]

and the same price for 05 crop hops?????????????????

 

[kabooby]

Seems like they are going the way of the fuel industry.

If prices have gone up from the hop growers than it should only be affecting the current crops

Homebrew world have still got some on special for $5 per 100g

Not a huge variety, but could get some stocks up before prices get to high

Kabooby

 

[mfdes]

Go check out hop prices in the US. Most likely we'll be paying $25 and above per 100g for the varieties most affected by the shortage.
Most Australian businesses and breweries contract their hop needs in advance, including prices, and thus were a bit insulated from the crisis. However, as often happens in times of shortage, I think the quantities delivered compared to what was contracted out has been pretty low, in some cases I know customers have had 50% or less of their contract honoured.
This is also particularly the case with NZ hops, the vast majority of which have been sold on contract and not on the spot market. This has meant lower prices as the spot market is insanely expensive at the moment. We're benefitting from this now, though Ross mighe be able to comment.

One of the things you should probably know is that the crises was driven purely by the purchasing strategies of the major breweries and wholesalers. Hop growers generally preferred to contract price on the crop before it is strung up in spring. However during the 1990s when there was more supply than demand, and there was a stockpile of older hops needing to be used, the prices were artificially depressed.
Customers in this falling market were reluctant to pre-contract, knowing that the spot-market price was only going down while the stockpile of old and stale hops was on offer at ever-lowering price. This strategy of refusing to pre-contract their needs backfired because hop growers would not plant (or string up) more than what they thought they'd sell (based on contracts). This eventually resulted in a shortage, but due to the stockpile, which had to be used up, the fact that not enough hops were being grown to meet demand was not picked up quickly. This is the main reason that the situation is as bad as it is.
Ironically, growers have learned the lesson, and many are refusing to sign pre-contracts in this rising market, because they know they'll get a better price on the spot market. Thus prices reached well over $1100 per kilo of alpha this year. That would be $100 per kg for a 10% alpha variety like POR, or $180 or so per kg for high alpha varieties like Topaz or Warrior. That's on average just over $500 per string in Tassie in the '08 season.
These are farm prices, to the wholesalers. As they'll go through usually at least three intermediaries before they get to you (hop broker, home-brew shop wholesaler and retailer), you can imagine the markups.
I'd find a good few recipes that use those varieties least affected by the shortage...

Kabooby: There is so much shortage that microbreweries have even been seeking for supply in homebrew shops. Just ask for example Ross. His only choice is either to say no outright (he'd be mad to, at the end of the day he's there to make a living), or put the price up. Hopefully to a level which we'll still be willing to pay, but which starts to look unattractively expensive to someone buying bulk.

MFS.

 

[Brewer_010]

I wonder if this may be related to the general grain shortage?
With a lot of land going to biofuels it is impacting on food crop available land. I saw something on telly the other night that said 25% of US cropping was going to biofuels, and to fill up a large 4x4 with biofuel used as much corn as a person could eat in a year.
Bollocks to that - less biofuel & more barley IMO.

 

[kabooby]

Hey MFS,

No problems with Ross, I have been happy with the price, service and support on everything I have got from him.

At the end of the day we just have to get used to prices going up across the board, from a litre of milk to interest rates. Thats the world we live in.

Kabooby