hop shortages

[fletcher]

simply put, why do they happen?

if i'm a company wanting to make money, i'd ideally like to make sure i have a a pretty decent supply of whatever product i had, naturally grown or otherwise. it means more money does it not? does the demand not meeting supply allow a cost increase?

i'm thinking of amarillo and riwaka and i'm sure there's been more that have been in 'short supply' since i've started brewing not long ago.

what am i missing? i'm happy to be completely shut up by someone who knows much more than i do, but i'm still a bit baffled by it.

 

[Camo6]

Poor seasons = poor yields. And thats just for starters.


Edit: Reworded to appease the god of granma.

 

[bum]

Poor seasons = poor yields for starters.

You don't even need starters anyway, regardless of yield. h34r:

 

[mmmyummybeer]

Big question with many reasons or answers, Generally it depends on acreage and demand. it takes time for growers to build up stock on popular hops. When they become popular there sometimes isn't enough for everyone. The major buyers will sign hop contracts to purchase the hops and therefore get first dibs on the harvest. If the harvest is low then others further down the line miss out.

 

[Yob]

Because we as homebrewers are the arse end of the hop market and get leftovers generally. When you talk propriety products such as Amarillo which are in large demand by commercial breweries the pressure flows on to us. There are some breweries that buy by the ton, that sometimes flows back to the market if they end up with excess, keep in mind too that to a large degree much of the hops are contracted prior to even being grown.. Riwaka for example is sold out years in advance.

 

[Econwatson]

I was amazed to see that worldwide hop production is less than 80,000 tonnes. It's amazing. With such a low yield, and with so much production concentrated in only a few places, seasonal fluctuations are bound to affect them severely.

 

[fletcher]

yeah i figured that would be the case (thanks guys for your explanations), i just don't know of any other industry that suffers so much to low supply but i guess yob's right. as homebrewers, we're not the forefront of the hop market's clientèle base.

 

[Bizier]

http://byo.com/stories/issue/item/1476-the-bitter-end-the-great-2008-hop-shortage
A little back story.

At the moment it is all about the exotic aroma arms race.

 

[Brewers Choice]

Unfortunately, some of the newer, popular hops coming out of the States (I think Amarillo is one of them?) are not 'publically available' plants - they have been developed and are owned by private companies that very tightly control the growth, manufacture and distribution of the hops, with the aim of charging a premium for the hop. Old style hops - Saaz, Goldings, Hallertau, etc are all publically available so you can get hold of some root stock and grow your own, but not so with these newer ones. The hop companies own them, and until someone manages to jump a fence and nick a few cuttings, there will be an intentional shortage of them into the future, to maintain the price premium. And if there is a poor yield in any year, then supply will be worse.

As a retailer who got caught out last year, the shortage seems to have happened even earlier this year, catching people out again. Even offers to buy a years' supply still puts us well behind the big brewers!

The only answer is back our local hop growers and develop recipes that use Australian hops. Greater demand will lead to greater plantings will lead to more consistent supply. And talk to your hop growers as well - they are keen to know what next year's trend are going to be, so they can plan their plantings.

 

[bum]

Unfortunately, some of the newer, popular hops coming out of the States (I think Amarillo is one of them?) are not 'publically available' plants - they have been developed and are owned by private companies that very tightly control the growth, manufacture and distribution of the hops, with the aim of charging a premium for the hop. Old style hops - Saaz, Goldings, Hallertau, etc are all publically available so you can get hold of some root stock and grow your own, but not so with these newer ones. The hop companies own them, and until someone manages to jump a fence and nick a few cuttings, there will be an intentional shortage of them into the future, to maintain the price premium. And if there is a poor yield in any year, then supply will be worse.

As a retailer who got caught out last year, the shortage seems to have happened even earlier this year, catching people out again. Even offers to buy a years' supply still puts us well behind the big brewers!

The only answer is back our local hop growers and develop recipes that use Australian hops. Greater demand will lead to greater plantings will lead to more consistent supply. And talk to your hop growers as well - they are keen to know what next year's trend are going to be, so they can plan their plantings.

Why would demand cause Australian suppliers to grow more but not international farms?

Why would suddenly and deliberately increasing demand on smaller providers increase their ability to meet demand?

[EDIT: fixed weird double-quote]

 

[Bribie G]

For some reason Australian farmers seem to be unable to respond intelligently to market demand. For example limes have been $2 each for about 10 years.

FFS

Now don't you think that someone, anyone, would have planted lots of lime trees and capitalised on this river of gold? Nah, they have stayed at $2 each. And will probably do so ad infinitum. Wouldn't hold out much hope that hop farmers are any more cluey than citrus farmers.

 

[chewy]

Weather,the time of the year and world market's are the factors in this debate... Supply and demand not so much..

 

[tanukibrewer]

I blame this guy! Having just tried them today for the first time I'm addicted

http://www.fermentedartistry.com/events/b-hoppy-candy-the-original-hop-flavored-candy/
https://twitter.com/hopcandy

 

[chewy]

Hmmm it all becomes very clear.........

 

[Stinger]

Hops, like limes and other agricultural produce are subject to the vagaries of the climate and market factors. It takes a number of years to bring new plantings up to full commercial yields (if going organic you will never get really high yields anyway). Avocados for instance take 7 or more years to come up to production, hops take a few years to get to decent years in my (backyard) experience.

The article in the link talks about Cool weather affecting flowering of the lime trees which results in lower yields and hence higher prices. You only need one insect plague or wet weather to create increased disease pressure or drought which all can lead to decreased yields. This is without getting into Colesworths retail margins, usually the farmers get just over cost price for their produce so you may as well try to track down a farmers market and purchase direct from the grower.

http://www.eatdrink.com.au/2012/10/fresh-limes-in-short-supply/

 

[kalbarluke]

I'm sure there's plenty of Chinese hops available - cheap, too. (insert vomiting emoticon while putting on flame suit)

 

[O'Henry]

I think Riwaka is not being grown anymore, which I heard was to do with poor yield/performance on the farm. Might just be hop suppliers talking shit, but it would be a shame if this hop disappeared.

 

[Online Brewing Supplies]

Might just be hop suppliers talking shit,

No never h34r:
Did you hear there is s shortage of Gryphon HERM-IT coils
Nev

 

[QldKev]

I think Riwaka is not being grown anymore, which I heard was to do with poor yield/performance on the farm. Might just be hop suppliers talking shit, but it would be a shame if this hop disappeared.

I think that's the issue with a lot of new hops, it takes them a few years to settle down into their new environment. The farmers care about pests/yields, we care about tastes. Amarillo is one of those hops that is just a memory of what it used to be.

There also seems to be a 'hop shortage' every year?

 

[nathan_madness]

For some reason Australian farmers seem to be unable to respond intelligently to market demand. For example limes have been $2 each for about 10 years.

FFS

Now don't you think that someone, anyone, would have planted lots of lime trees and capitalised on this river of gold? Nah, they have stayed at $2 each. And will probably do so ad infinitum. Wouldn't hold out much hope that hop farmers are any more cluey than citrus farmers.

Don't think that this is the farmers fault. More likely the suppliers greediness.

I planted 10 lime trees in 2008 and now have more than enough limes F them I now have free limes.