Borret said:
I am just curios to know, after all the media hype, what people believe is going to be the outcome of tonights deorbit and re-entry. What have the journo's convinced us will happen? Will NASA be cracking beers of joy or beers of comiseration this evening?
Borret
[post="70598"][/post]
OK.. As a complete space nut I'll give you my take on the whole thing -
Liftoff -
Some large pieces of foam shed from the tank that managed to miss the orbiter. They got lucky.
Top of the tank hit a buzzard at liftoff. Again they got lucky the only damage was to the buzzard.
No impacts recorded on the RCC wing leading edges. Fallin ice knocks a 1 inch hole in a tile near the forward landing gear door. The shuttle has survived re-entry with larger holes than that. It is common for mocrometioroids to knock 10 or 20 holes in the insulation during a mission. the shuttle is designed to handle it.
Media frenzy starts.
On Orbit -
New procedures used to look for serious damage. Media (most of whom wouldn't have a clue what is going on) start to report serious damage.
Hi res photos show up 2 issues -
2 space fillers are projecting just above the surface of the tiles. This is like caulk that is used to fill gaps between the tiles. Essentially they have a thin strip of something like silicone sticking out. The issus is that this may cause turbulant airflow during re-entry and cause higher than normal down-stream heating on the aft end. Gap fillers have come out before and have not caused a problem but NASA is (understandably) being ultra paramoid so out they come during a spacewalk
Media reports shuttle in serious trouble.
Hires photos show a slight tear in a thermal blanket. Not part of the thermal protection system use din re-entry but may break lose and damage the aft of the shuttle. Even a hyper paranoid NASA says no problem.
Media reports shuttle almost certainly doomed.
Based on what they know now, it will be a normal re-entry. Note I said normal, not risk free. Hitting the atmosphere at mach 22 is never risk free but unless there is an accident on the way down or there is something they don't know about yet, it will be OK.
The media will be disappointed.
Further shuttle flights are grounded until they work out why the external tank (which has been re-designed to not shed foam) shed foam.
I now return you to your regularly scheduled drinking.
Cheers
Dave