I think it’s a completely BS argument.
Have a look at the excise tables for 01/02/2024.
Scroll down to the Beer in a keg for pub serve, Excise has gone up by less than $1/L.
That’s calculated on the L of alcohol in the keg. Say a 50L (48L of beer) at 5% ABV; we are talking about 2.5L of alcohol. The tax could have only gone up by about $2.50. That’s over a typically 118 Schooners (yes NSW) so less than 2cents/schooner, sweet FA.
If your business model is so bad that that 2c/serve is going to send you broke, get a better model, accountant, industry you’re in the wrong one!
Mark