Respectfully manticle, that's the misunderstanding and the reason I asked (a little facetiously). All the above matters naught bar the fermenter generating heat if the temp of the environment is constant.
If (if) the temp of the fridge is 4°C, so will be everything in the fridge given time. The volumetric heat capacity (what's meant by thermal mass, which is a term used in building) will determine the rate at which the vessel gains or loses heat from/to the environment. Will happen much faster to the small vessel.
The material it's made of, much the same.
In a fridge, over time, a large and small vessel (not fermenting beer) will be roughly the same temp if using the small vessel's temp to control. It will cycle more often but be more tightly controlled.
If using the large vessel, the small vessel will get colder but will eventually increase to the temp of the large vessel.
Now in my case (when I posted the pic) I adjusted some settings on the STC to extend intervals and waited until it was to cut back in before checking. Then checked later again to confirm. I double-checked last night as per Spiesey's recommendation and found the wort to be a degree and a half warmer than the glass of water, and it was actively fermenting. Adjusted the STC offset to suit (disregarded glass of water), and I think it's pretty bloody accurate now until I get my dip tubes.
My post was admittedly alarmist but I'm pretty confident if you use the ol' bottle of water with probe in the fridge technique, and you know the difference between it and a fermenting beer generating heat, you're going to be accurate within a degree.