Likelihood is too hard to pin down. But you can assume with a high degree of certainty that sterilising the bag will not completely remove the risk. Even when active starters are pitched immediately wort is never guaranteed to be infection free. I would say that risk is significant enough to not even consider it. If there is an issue there is no chance the bag will withstand the pressure of any CO2 production and you'll have a suitcase full of krausen. The higher density of the goop may make it less likely, I dunno, but it seems just as logical to me that it may increase the chance.It is the likelihood/risk I want to quantify. If done in a clean environment I am hoping the chances of contamnation are minimal. I will give it a go. Thanks.
Likelihood is too hard to pin down. But you can assume with a high degree of certainty that sterilising the bag will not completely remove the risk. Even when active starters are pitched immediately wort is never guaranteed to be infection free. I would say that risk is significant enough to not even consider it. If there is an issue there is no chance the bag will withstand the pressure of any CO2 production and you'll have a suitcase full of krausen. The higher density of the goop may make it less likely, I dunno, but it seems just as logical to me that it may increase the chance.
None of this is even the real issue I have with the idea, of course. Have you looked into what penalty is imposed for intending to brew alcohol in the country you are going to? You sound like you're hoping to bring in gear for more than one batch - what if they decide this is more than is required for personal consumption and you intend to supply? The best possible outcome will be that you're turned around and put on the next plane home.
The higher density of the goop may make it less likely, I dunno, but it seems just as logical to me that it may increase the chance.
Goop is basically wort with an OG of 1.300 or something ridiculous high like that, I don't think that any airborne yeast could transform the bag into a Co2 bomb in any short period of time.
Ever seen a marshmallow fermenting?
Agree with your other reasoning, though.
To the OP:
I would just get a few bags of dry malt extract, unbranded (from memory the coopers stuff comes in clear unmarked plastic bags once you rip the carton off), check with your local customs if this is a prohibited item (unlikely, but check), and if they ask tell them you mix it with milk and chocolate to get something like Ovomaltine (or Ovaltine in some countries).
If you can't get hops in you might be able to source some other bittering agents like Yarrow, or mugwort. If you insist on adding flavour additions your possibilities are endless from teas over herbs to Juniper.
EDIT: Also have a look here for unhopped beer recipes.
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