domonsura
Beer stuff maker
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Grain drain
Weekly Times, Page: 1, Wednesday, 11 July 2007 Ref: 28935959
AUSTRALIA faces running run out of wheat, barley and other key grains before the
next harvest.
And while grain growers are set to reap higher prices as customers scramble for
supplies, livestock and dairy producers will most likely be hit with higher costs.
Just-released Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal the major bulk handlers had
5.9 million tonnes of wheat and 1.6 million tonnes of barley in store at the end of May.
At current consumption rates, feed barley supplies should run out by September,
malting barley by the end of the year, feed wheat by November and milling wheat
by December.
The decline in barley stocks has been backed by ABB Grain Ltds own estimation.
Two weeks ago, ABB Grain said it expected to run out of barley by August and to
make final pool payments to growers in September.
Most of the nations wheat stocks are believed to be in Western Australia, with some
held in South Australia.
According to ABB Grain marketing general manager Peter Jones, the wheat was not
going to move to east-coast feed markets unless prices rose to cover freight costs.
Mr Jones said that as grain stocks began to run out, prices would increase.
He noted that AWB Limiteds wheat tender last week was higher than that of the
previous week.
But Australian Lot Feeders Association believes grain stocks will hang on until
harvesting of the new crop began in Queensland and northern NSW in September.
"Its going to be tight enough," ALFA vice-president Kevin Roberts said.
"But Ive got no doubt supplies will meet demand.
"Working in our favour is the fact that there isnt the same number of cattle going on
feed because the margins are too tight." The beef and dairy industries are the two
biggest users of feed grain.
It was too early to tell what effect the recent Gippsland floods would have on grain
demand.
The ABS figures indicate that Australian grain stocks will be in a worse position than in
2002-03, when supplies of all grains hit an historically low four million tonnes of grains
before the new harvest began.
At the end of May, the major bulk handlers held 4.6 million tonnes of milling wheat
and 1.2 million tonnes of feed wheat, 877,000 tonnes of malting barley and 735,000
tonnes of feed barley.
They also held one million tonnes of oats, triticale, oilseeds, sorghum and other feed
grains and pulses.
The ABS data shows milling wheat being depleted by about 800,000 tonnes a month,
feed wheat and feed barley by 240,000 tonnes a month, and malting barley by
140,000 tonnes a month.
The ABS figures are believed to account for about 85-90 per cent of the grain
available.
They do not cover grain held by farmers, small regional grain handlers or end users.
Maltsters said there was enough supply to carry their operations through until the new
crop was available.
International Malting Company Australia managing director Ian Maccan said the
domestic market for malting barley for conversion into malt was about 800,000 tonnes
to one million tonnes a year.
"So there is ample for domestic consumption," Mr Maccan said.
Flour Millers Council of Australia Graeme Lukey said the level of grain stocks was a
"major and great concern" among users.
"I don t think anyone would know where supplies stood at the moment," Mr Lukey
said.
But he said flow-milling businesses had not raised the issue, so he assumed that the
individual companies had secured enough supplies to last through to next harvest.
An AWB spokesman said the marketer was ensuring it had enough wheat for its major
overseas customers.
However, rapidly dwindling stocks did have some benefits.
For grain marketers such as AWB (International) Limited, it provided a rare opportunity
to find out whether inventories matched up with grain delivered from the previous
harvest.
There is usually a substantial carryover of stocks from one season, before grain from
the following harvest is dumped on top.
AWB(I) has been concerned stocks from the 2005-06 pool were short of what growers
delivered.
But the AWB spokesman said the company was nearing completion of its discussions
with the major bulk handlers.
"Were satisfied with our stock position," he said.
Weekly Times, Page: 1, Wednesday, 11 July 2007 Ref: 28935959
AUSTRALIA faces running run out of wheat, barley and other key grains before the
next harvest.
And while grain growers are set to reap higher prices as customers scramble for
supplies, livestock and dairy producers will most likely be hit with higher costs.
Just-released Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal the major bulk handlers had
5.9 million tonnes of wheat and 1.6 million tonnes of barley in store at the end of May.
At current consumption rates, feed barley supplies should run out by September,
malting barley by the end of the year, feed wheat by November and milling wheat
by December.
The decline in barley stocks has been backed by ABB Grain Ltds own estimation.
Two weeks ago, ABB Grain said it expected to run out of barley by August and to
make final pool payments to growers in September.
Most of the nations wheat stocks are believed to be in Western Australia, with some
held in South Australia.
According to ABB Grain marketing general manager Peter Jones, the wheat was not
going to move to east-coast feed markets unless prices rose to cover freight costs.
Mr Jones said that as grain stocks began to run out, prices would increase.
He noted that AWB Limiteds wheat tender last week was higher than that of the
previous week.
But Australian Lot Feeders Association believes grain stocks will hang on until
harvesting of the new crop began in Queensland and northern NSW in September.
"Its going to be tight enough," ALFA vice-president Kevin Roberts said.
"But Ive got no doubt supplies will meet demand.
"Working in our favour is the fact that there isnt the same number of cattle going on
feed because the margins are too tight." The beef and dairy industries are the two
biggest users of feed grain.
It was too early to tell what effect the recent Gippsland floods would have on grain
demand.
The ABS figures indicate that Australian grain stocks will be in a worse position than in
2002-03, when supplies of all grains hit an historically low four million tonnes of grains
before the new harvest began.
At the end of May, the major bulk handlers held 4.6 million tonnes of milling wheat
and 1.2 million tonnes of feed wheat, 877,000 tonnes of malting barley and 735,000
tonnes of feed barley.
They also held one million tonnes of oats, triticale, oilseeds, sorghum and other feed
grains and pulses.
The ABS data shows milling wheat being depleted by about 800,000 tonnes a month,
feed wheat and feed barley by 240,000 tonnes a month, and malting barley by
140,000 tonnes a month.
The ABS figures are believed to account for about 85-90 per cent of the grain
available.
They do not cover grain held by farmers, small regional grain handlers or end users.
Maltsters said there was enough supply to carry their operations through until the new
crop was available.
International Malting Company Australia managing director Ian Maccan said the
domestic market for malting barley for conversion into malt was about 800,000 tonnes
to one million tonnes a year.
"So there is ample for domestic consumption," Mr Maccan said.
Flour Millers Council of Australia Graeme Lukey said the level of grain stocks was a
"major and great concern" among users.
"I don t think anyone would know where supplies stood at the moment," Mr Lukey
said.
But he said flow-milling businesses had not raised the issue, so he assumed that the
individual companies had secured enough supplies to last through to next harvest.
An AWB spokesman said the marketer was ensuring it had enough wheat for its major
overseas customers.
However, rapidly dwindling stocks did have some benefits.
For grain marketers such as AWB (International) Limited, it provided a rare opportunity
to find out whether inventories matched up with grain delivered from the previous
harvest.
There is usually a substantial carryover of stocks from one season, before grain from
the following harvest is dumped on top.
AWB(I) has been concerned stocks from the 2005-06 pool were short of what growers
delivered.
But the AWB spokesman said the company was nearing completion of its discussions
with the major bulk handlers.
"Were satisfied with our stock position," he said.
